The impact of the TTP ceasefire on Pakistan’s anti-national violence is minimal: PICSS Report

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A two-month ceasefire analysis by TTP shows that there is no significant reduction in anti-national violence. The number of radical attacks in May and June 2022 is still higher than in the first three months of this year. The pattern of violence is similar to what it was before TTP announced a ceasefire. The number of radical attacks decreased slightly in June compared to May 2022. However, a visible increase in causality was also observed in June. Terrorist attacks are expected to decrease in the process of purifying national security forces. Security forces increased in the former FATA and KPK, despite TTP’s announcement of an indefinite ceasefire in early June. According to statistics released by the Pakistan Institute for Conflict Security (PICSS), an independent think tank based in Islamabad, the number of armed attacks in June decreased by 10%, but the number of casualties compared to May. Increased by 5%. 2022.

In June, militants launched 26 attacks, killing 36 people, including 12 members of the security forces, and injuring 26 people, including 6 members of the security forces. In May 2022, militants launched 29 attacks nationwide, killing 20 and injuring 39. Notably, in April 2022, the number of attacks reached 35, killing 55 people. This was the maximum number of attacks in the month of 2022. The highest number of deaths was in March 2022, with 26 attacks killing 115 people. In January, 24 attacks killed 42 people, but in February, 13 incidents were reported and 25 people were killed, the lowest number of attacks in a month. In the early

FATA, PICSS recorded more than double the combat attacks compared to May 2022. In June 2022, 12 armed attacks were reported, killing 20 people, including 6 members of the security forces, and injuring 12 people, including 2 members of the security forces. TTP is not responsible for radical attacks in this area. The number of combat attacks in the KP (formerly FATA) tribal district in June was higher than the number of combat attacks in the first three months of the year, indicating that the ceasefire has the least impact on FATA violence. .. This means that TTP is not the only cause of tribal area and KPK violence. The Hafiz Gul Bahadur (Shura Mujahideen) group and ISIS are believed to be behind the surge in combat attacks in the former FATA (KPK Tribal District). The inability of TTP to control violence casts doubt on the overall security implications of ongoing peace talks.

Security forces in the region have also been strengthened in response to the rise in radical attacks. Previous FATA reported six actions by security forces, of which 16 suspected militants were killed. In response to the increase in security forces’ actions, the TTP issued a statement that security forces’ actions would affect the ceasefire.

Balochistan recorded a slight decrease in radical attacks in June 2022 compared to May 2022. Seven armed attacks were reported, killing nine people, including three members of the security forces, and injuring four, including one member of the security forces. The state witnessed nine armed attacks in May, killing three. Balochistan also witnessed five actions by security forces, killing eight suspected militants and arresting four others. Targeted killings of security forces remained a major problem in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, as three armed attacks were carried out and three members of the security forces were killed. Security forces’ actions reported by KPK killed seven suspected militants in two intelligence activities. Four radical attacks were carried out on Sind, killing four and injuring eight. Two actions by security forces were also reported in Sind, and two suspected militants were arrested. In Punjab, state security forces conducted four purge operations against the disbanded militant groups and arrested 22 suspected militants. There were no radical attacks in Punjab in June, but one radical attack was reported in May.